Revista de Administración, Contabilidad y Economía
|
|
|
Characterization of the evolution of the number of people sentenced to prison
The main objective of the present work is to analyze the number of people sentenced to prison evolution throughout time, using a statistical model to predict future values and to provide an initial evaluation of Law N°17897 impact on the number of people sentenced to prison evolution. An univariate ARIMA-IA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Intervention Analysis) model is estimated and series are separated in three components: tendency, seasonal and irregular component. Decomposition is generated by applying a method based on reduced form models (Maravall and Pierce 1987). Estimates for the end of 2007 predict a similar number of people sentenced to prison to the registered in 2004. Law N° 17897, applied since September 2005, reverts temporarily the increasing tendency of the series, the law produces a skip in the number of people sentenced to prison evolution, generating a transitory change. |
Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración Gonzalo
Ramírez 1926 C.P. 11200 |